Yeah, I know, it’s the Super Bowl on Sunday. How exciting, right? Except, this time I really do not feel that enthusiastic about it.  Why is that? Let me see…

Seahawks 28, Packers 22 (OT)

AKA, the biggest collapse you can imagine in an NFL game, as Green Bay managed to throw away a 19-7 lead, WITH THE BALL, and only five minutes remaining.  How did they do it? Well firstly an interception where, for some reason, Morgan Burnett just decided to slide before midfield when he had AN OPEN FIELD IN FRONT OF HIM AND HE COULD HAVE ENDED THE GAME; then a bad series, with a 3 and out; a collapsing defense gives up two touchdowns in one drive (one called back because Marshawn Lynch was an inch out of bounds); a fucked up (sorry for the swear, but what other word could you use) onside-kick recovery; another collapsing defense; and then worst of all, Aaron Rodgers calls TAILS…oh because “Tails never fails”, Aaron? Shall I tell you who would have called Heads, British Aaron Rodgers, and he’d have insisted it was the Queen’s Head on an English Pound Coin.  (Just kidding, I still want to get rid of the monarchy).  Oh and we had the ball at the one yard line twice in the first half, yet only got a total of six points from those two drives.  GAHHH.  Needless to say, when I’ve been wearing Packers gear around in the last two weeks, I’ve got many comments, mostly disbelief in the result and that I’m still displaying my fandom.

Anyway, Seattle are the reigning champions, very unlikeable for the above victory, Pete Carroll being Pete Carroll, Marshawn Lynch acting like he’s better than talking to the media; the number of their players who have been suspended for performance enhancing drugs over the last three years; their overrated home crowd who were basically silent before the fake field goal touchdown (which I did not even mention above, because it should have been a footnote to the victory); and a million other reasons. So, let’s hope their opponents are someone worth rooting for…

Patriots 45, Colts 7

New England deflated Indianapolis’ chances by airing out the football, as Tom Brady threw for 226 yards and three touchdowns.  The Patriots ensured there was not too much pressure on them by racing into an early lead, then inflating their score in the second half.

Yes, the Patriots cheated (STOP THE PRESSES!!!!!) and had their balls too low.  I mean the pressure in their footballs was too low. Or a little bit. And it might have been deliberate.  Either way, they could have played perfectly, honorably and with great panache, I still would not want a Boston team to become champions in any sport, so this was not a deciding factor.

Actually, it was because I now want New England to win the Super Bowl, because even if they do, it will still be somewhat tainted, just like the Red Sox 2004 World Series win is by the number of players from that squad who have been implicated in PEDs since then.  So, enjoy Patriots fans, I’m putting a big asterisk next to this Super Bowl victory.

Prediction:

*P*a*t*r*i*o*t*s* -1* over Seahawks

Conference Round, 2-0; Playoffs 8-2

 

I do not really want to talk about this weekend’s NFL games.  It’s become too important suddenly.  The Packers are a game away from a return to the Super Bowl, which would be just their fourth since I have been a fan (I started following them and the sport in the early 1990s) and second since I’ve been living in the United States.  Potential success is so close, yet there is such a big obstacle in the way: I do not want to listen to previews, I do not really want to write about it – I just want time to pass as quickly as possible so that the kick off can happen and I can sit there for three and a half hours, watching from behind my hands.  I really do not want to talk about it, because I think that Green Bay are going to win and I do not want to dare type that out loud.  Not because I believe in jinxes (I do not) or that I could have any affect on the game, but just I really want to be right about this.  Still, let’s look at what happened last weekend, starting with the Packers.

Green Bay 26-21 Dallas Cowboys

The game was basically clinched when Dez Bryant dropped a throw from Tony Romo on the one yard line with four minutes to play…what? Okay so it was probably a catch, despite what the letter of the law said, but a couple of points that were not forthcoming in the furore over the reversed call:

• With more than 3.5 minutes remaining, Aaron Rodgers would definitely have gotten the Packers into at least field goal range and the way he was playing that second half, would have gotten a touchdown to win it in all likelihood.
• Because of that first point, it was a ridiculous play call from the Cowboys, who should have run on 4th and 2 not least to limit the amount of time Rodgers would have had to respond. They did not need that big play at that time, regardless of it looked like a catch to anyone not in a zebra suit.
• Dan Bailey’s missed field goal towards the end of the first half was just as important to the Cowboys loss.  If he makes it, Dallas goes in 17-7 up at the half (they would have kicked off and the Packers would not have had such good field position to start), instead it was 14-10.
• People did not mention enough about how well Green Bay played because of that call: Rodgers was superb in the second half – ON ONE LEG!; Julius Peppers – who many dismissed as overrated when he signed as a free agent from Chicago – made a great play to force a fumble from DeMarco Murray; and Davante Adams made a superb catch and run for a touchdown, completely bamboozling the Cowboys defensive back.
• In 2012, the Packers lost in Seattle thanks to a ridiculous catch call that was made by the replacement refs, which was the start of the Seahawks incredible home-field performance.  This time, the Bryant non-catch was correctly ruled incomplete (per the rules of the game) and now Green Bay gets to go into Seattle and end their NFC dominance in front of the 12th man. Boy, I’m pumped up for this game, let’s move on to the other contests from last week.

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There are just eight teams left in the race to be crowned Super Bowl champions in Arizona next month.  Before looking at this weekend’s divisional round, here’s what happened in the opening four playoff games:

• The Cardinals will not become the first team to win the Super Bowl at home, as they managed just 78 yards of offense and were beaten 27-16 by the Panthers.  The victory meant that Carolina joined Seattle – whom they face this Saturday – as the only teams to win a playoff contest after finishing the regular season with a losing record.

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  Baltimore shocked the Steelers in Pittsburgh, as Joe Flacco once again upped his game in the postseason and led the Ravens to a 30-17 victory.

• For the fourth consecutive year, the Bengals made the playoffs but lost their opening game, as they were defeated by the Colts, 26-10 in Indianapolis.  Cincinnati were without their best wide receiver, AJ Green, as well as their tight-end, Jermaine Gresham, but Andy Dalton was simply outplayed by Andrew Luck, who threw for 376 yards and a touchdown.
• Dallas came from 20-7 back to beat the Lions 24-20 and advanced to the Divisional Round.  Much was made of a picked up flag with eight minutes to go in the fourth quarter that reversed a pass interference call that would have kept a Detroit drive alive.  However, the lack of discipline of the Lions’ defense was what cost them: in the game-winning touchdown drive for the Cowboys, they committed penalties on third down that kept the chains moving.

Divisional Round Predictions

Last week, 4-0; Playoffs, 4-0

Home teams in bold

Ravens +7 over Patriots

I fully recognize this could be a huge blowout for New England and the Ravens looked far from convincing over the last month of the season.  However, they played a fantastic game against Pittsburgh last week and they have a history of performing well both in the playoffs and specifically against the Patriots.  Also, it is nearly a month since New England played a good game: they were lucky to edge past the Jets in Week 16 when they were still playing for the number one seed; rested starters and lost to Buffalo in Week 17, then had a bye week.  That is a long time to have gone since playing particularly well and it could result in Brady and company being somewhat rusty in the first half of this contest.

Seahawks -11 over Panthers

Not sure how high they would have to make this line for me to take Carolina in Seattle.  Part of me, as a Packers fan, wants the Panthers to cause an upset, but I also want Aaron Rodgers to be able to prove himself against the best, which would mean going through the Seahawks.  Regardless of my preference, the Panthers are only .500 for the season thanks to the win over the Cardinals and their third string quarterback in the Wild Card round – this will be a very one-sided contest.

Packers -5.5 over Cowboys

Yes, Dallas are 8-0 on the road. Yes, Aaron Rodgers might be hoping around on one leg. Yes, I’m terrified of seeing Matt Flynn warming up on the sidelines.  No, I’m not taking the Cowboys under any circumstances.  Go Pack Go!

Broncos -7 over Colts

Peyton Manning against his old team; Andrew Luck versus the man he took over from at quarterback for the Colts.  The truth is, Manning did not look the same in the second half of the season, but he just got to rest for the first time since Denver had their bye in week 4.  I really wanted to find a way to pick Indianapolis in this contest, but I do not think they will be good enough to beat the Broncos on their own turf.

 

 

 

 

This weekend sees the start of the NFL playoffs, as we have reached the point where there are just eleven games left to play in the 2014 season.  Before getting onto my predictions for each of those games, here’s a quick rundown of the main action from Week 17:

• Baltimore labored to victory over the Browns, but their eventual success was enough to earn them the 6th seed in the AFC, as the Chargers were beaten by the Chiefs.  The win for the Ravens meant that both Kansas City and Houston were eliminated, despite having victories in their final contests of the season.

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  Seattle clinched the number 1 seed in the NFC, despite struggling in the first half of their game with the Rams.  Green Bay earned the other bye in the conference, as Aaron Rodgers overcame a leg injury to lead the Packers to yet another home victory over the Lions.

• Carolina won in Atlanta to claim the NFC South with an unimpressive record of 7-8-1.  However, they get to host the flailing Cardinals in the opening round of the playoffs, so a sub-500 team could once again win a postseason game, just like the Seahawks did in 2010.
• Tampa Bay rallied from a 20-7 fourth-quarter lead over the Saints to lose 23-20 and guarantee for themselves the first pick in the this year’s draft.  It was a particularly impressive defeat as it required New Orleans to: a) score 9 points inside the final 2 minutes; and b) not tank themselves so as to avoid having to face quarterback – and likely number 1 pick – Marcus Mariota twice a season for the next decade.
• I ended the regular season with a 7-9 week picking against the spread, to bring my final total to 133-123.

Wild Card Weekend Predictions

Home teams in bold

Panthers -4.5 over Cardinals

Although Carolina ended the season with a losing record, compared with Arizona’s 11-5 mark, the two teams have been on opposite trajectories over the last month.  The Cardinals will be forced to start Ryan Lindley in this playoff game and, despite the strength of their defense, I do not think they will be able to score enough points to beat the Panthers.

Ravens +3.5 over Steelers

In week 9, Pittsburgh beat the Ravens by 20 points and Ben Roethlisberger threw for six touchdown passes.  However, the weather in western Pennsylvania calls for snow and ice on Saturday night, plus the Steelers will be without their star running back, Le’Veon Bell, due to injury.  Also, Joe Flacco has a proven track record on the road in playoff games and I think that Baltimore will pull off an upset.

Colts -6 over Bengals

Not only is AJ Green a doubt for this game with a concussion, but to pick Cincinnati, you would have to believe that Andy Dalton can win in the postseason, on the road no less.  I will take Indianapolis and Andrew Luck over the Bengals, especially since they beat them 27-0 earlier in the season.

Lions +8 over Cowboys

My upset special for the opening weekend: I think that not only will Detroit cover in this game, but they will win outright and progress to face Seattle in the divisional round.  Maybe it is just that, as a Packers fan, I would rather face the Cardinals or Panthers next week than the Cowboys, but I think that the Lions’ defense will cause issues for Dallas.  Add to that the fact that most people were tipping the Cowboys to be one of the worst teams in football before the season began, so everything is gravy from here-on out; Tony Romo’s ability to capitulate, despite his strong showing in December; and the fact that DeMarco Murray has already carried the ball 392 times in 2014, I think Detroit has a great shot this Sunday.  Of course, it will mean that Matt Stafford will have to beat a winning team on the road for the first team in his career (0-16 to this point).