After I covered the election four years ago so extensively, this time around I’ve not written a single word about the campaign (at least not the real life one, and in main part because my favored candidate lost in the Primaries, but you can read my novel about a fictional Presidential campaign, available here). There has been so much that could have been said, but at this point, the only thing left is to figure out who will win. Somehow, it’s close, but who is going to get the 270 electoral college votes needed to become the next President of the United States.

Let’s start with the states that are definitely going to vote for someone who made a mistake with an e-mail server; has remained loyally married to a philanderer; and who is fiscally center-right:

Definite Clinton Wins (If she loses any of these, you can turn off the coverage early):

Electoral College vote total in brackets

California (55); Oregon (7); Washington (12); Illinois (20); New York (29); Vermont (3); Massachusetts (11); Rhode Island (4); Connecticut (7); New Jersey (14); Maryland (10); DC (3); Hawai’i (4); Delaware (3) (Total ECVs – 182)

Now onto those that are definitely going to vote for the misogynistic, racist, kn0w-nothing, bullying, sex predator:

Definite Trump Wins (If he loses any of these, you can break open a bottle of champagne):

South Carolina (9); Georgia (16); Alabama (9); Mississippi (6); Arkansas (6); Louisiana (8); Texas (38); Oklahoma (7); Kansas (6); Missouri (10); Idaho (4); Montana (3); Alaska (3); Arizona (11 – don’t believe the hype, this is staying red); Utah (6 – nor about Utah, the third party affect will diminish on election day); North Dakota (3); South Dakota (3); Wyoming (3); West Virginia (5); Kentucky (8); Tennessee (11); Indiana (11); Nebraska (5) ((Total ECVs – 191)

That’s a lot of states for someone who, and I cannot emphasize this enough, knows literally nothing about politics and expresses no interest in learning. It’s a lot of electoral college votes for someone who cannot finish a sentence, other than saying “it’s going to be great, it’s going to be amazing, it’s so great, bigly, bigly, bigly.”

So, in the definite states, Trump leads 191 to 182 in the Electoral College. Let’s move on (I should point out, I have not worked out my prediction to the finish yet so I don’t know who I’m going to end up prognosticating as the winner).

States I’m Pretty Confident of the Outcome, but not 100% Certain

Maine – Split Clinton 3, Trump 1; 

Clinton – New Mexico (5); Colorado (9); Minnesota (10); Wisconsin (11); Michigan (16); Virginia (13)

Trump – Iowa (6); Ohio (18); New Hampshire (4)

Add all of those to where we were before and the race looks like this:

Trump 220 – Clinton 248

With four states to go…Nevada, Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Now obviously, if Nevada and North Carolina went to Clinton and the other two went to Trump, we would end up with a tie in the electoral college. However, I do not think Clinton will win either of those two, and I actually think the only one she might win of the four is Pennsylvania. However, even that is in jeopardy, despite her lead in the polls, since a transit strike in Philadelphia could significantly affect turnout. However, lets say Clinton does win that one and the other three go to Trump – this is how the electoral college votes would stand:

Clinton – 268; Trump 270.

I hope I’m wrong, I genuinely do – perhaps the early voter reports from Nevada suggesting large numbers of Hispanic people are showing up to cast their votes will help Clinton win the Silver State. We shall see. If I am right and Trump does become elected the next President, there will of course be serious consequences, but one thing that must be accepted is that conventional wisdom around elections is no longer valid. In the UK, in 2015, there was supposed to be no clear winner of the general election, yet the Conservatives gained significant ground and now enjoy an outright majority. Plus in June, most people expected “Remain” to win in the Brexit referendum, yet leave triumphed by quite a healthy margin in the end.

The one thing you can do to affect the outcome: if you have a vote, use it.

 

 

 

 

Last Sunday, Manchester City recorded their second 3-0 victory in as many games to start the season and propelled themselves to the top of the early table.  What made this win all the sweeter for City was the fact that the opponents they vanquished were the reigning champions, Chelsea.

City controlled from the outset and Sergio Aguero missed three early chances, two of which were well saved by Asmir Begovic, playing in goal for the Blues in place of the suspended Thibaut Courtois. Just after the half hour mark, Aguero did finally break the deadlock and gave his team the lead with a well taken goal.  Jose Mourinho opted to remove John Terry from his back line, the first time he had substituted the club captain in a league match in either of his spells in charge at Chelsea.  In the end, the change made no difference and two late goals from Vincent Kompany and a cracker from Fernandinho made the scoreline as convincing as the performance had felt throughout.

Or, if you believe Chelsea’s website and Mourinho, City were very fortunate to come away with a victory and the turning point was a Ramires’ goal being incorrectly ruled out for offside. Maybe I was watching a different game, but I thought that Manuel Pelligrini’s men were impressive, while Chelsea put in their third (including the irrelevant Community Shield) consecutive weary looking performance of the young campaign and really need to improve if they are to have any chance of repeating their success from last season. To help their chances, they  have added Pedro to their attacking ranks, as he signed from Barcelona in midweek, choosing the London club over Manchester United, who had previously shown interest in signing the Spaniard.  One final note, the best moment of the game for me was when Chelsea’s replacement medical staff – in for the sidelined Doctor and physio who Mourinho vilified for daring to enter the pitch in the opening week when Eden Hazard was feigning injury – came on to treat a player and the City fans sang that they would be “sacked in the morning”.

Louis van Gaal and the Red Devils need not be too disappointed on missing out on Pedro, as they have started the season with six points from two games, even if they are yet to play well.  Last Friday, they defeated Aston Villa 1-0 in Birmingham, with Belgian youngster Adnan Syed Januzaj scoring the only goal in his first start since February.  The Manchester clubs are joined at the top of the table by two other clubs who have 100% records thus far: Liverpool, who beat Bournemouth 1-0 thanks to a Christian Benteke goal that should have been disallowed as Philippe Coutinho attempted to play the ball from an offside position; and Leicester, who stunned West Ham by winning 2-1 at Upton Park. Continue reading →

With the first round of fixtures in the 2015/16 Premier League season officially in the books, it is time to make snap judgements based on the 90 minutes of action we have seen of each club.  Here’s what we already know for sure and definitely will not change our mind about by next Monday, let alone in May:

• Arsenal aren’t going to win the league after all, they’re rubbish!

  

• Petr Cech is not going to be the missing piece of the puzzle for the Gunners, he is a secret spy from Chelsea, still working for Jose Mourinho!
• Leicester are brilliant under Claudio Ranieri and any relegation danger that was predicted for them was far too short-sighted!
• Chelsea cannot defend and their medical staff are so bad at their job, they even try to treat Eden Hazard when he is clearly play-acting and trying to con the referee.
• Spurs are shit!

Okay, so the last one I actually agree with.  Tottenham started off their campaign in a very familiar pattern: they dominated the opening exchanges away at Manchester united; should have taken the lead when Christian Eriksen was played through by Harry Kane; then gave away a soft goal that could have been avoided if Nabil Bentaleb could pass and Kyle Walker had cleared the ball, rather than scuffing into his own net.  Spurs then did nothing of note until the 88th minute, when they seemed to remember they needed to attack in order to get something out of the match, but the effort was too little, too late and they lost 1-0.  I am going to end up sounding like a broken record on this, so until it happens, I’ll just copy and paste this next sentence into every football post I write:

Tom Carroll should be starting in central midfield for Tottenham.

There were other, far more exciting games as well last weekend, but Stoke’s 1-0 home defeat to Liverpool was not one of them.  Save for Philippe Coutinho’s magnificent solo strike to win the match for the Reds five minutes from time, it was a drab affair, though Brendan Rodgers will be happy to lay to rest the ghost of his team’s 6-1 defeat on the same ground on the final day of last season.

As alluded to in the massive overreactions from the opening week, Arsenal were upset at home in their opening match by West Ham, who won 2-0 at the Emirates.  It was an impressive performance by the Hammers in Slaven Bilic’s first Premier League match as manager and 16 year-old Reece Oxford has been singled out for his showing in the center of midfield.  However, it should also be remembered that West Ham have been playing competitive matches since the beginning of July, thanks to their involvement in the qualifying rounds of the Europa League.  This could explain why they were in better early form than the Gunners and I expect Bilic’s side to drop off after Christmas as players start to fatigue from a long campaign.  As for Petr Cech’s mistakes, they were not what you would expect from a  top class goalkeeper, but everyone has their off days and he was not helped by poor marking from the defenders for the opening goal.

Another team that showed an uncharacteristically poor defensive performance in their opening game was Chelsea, who conceded twice and were lucky to escape with a 2-2 draw at home to Swansea, especially after Thibaut Courtois was sent off with half an hour to go for a professional foul on Bafetimbi Gomis.  With the Belgian keeper now suspended for the clash with Manchester City, who started their season with a convincing 3-0 win away at West Brom, it could spell an early crisis for Jose Mourinho’s side.  However, if the Blues’ manager’s track record is anything to go by, it is perfectly possible that not only will they be able to keep City at bay on Sunday, they may not concede another goal anytime soon.  One thing is for sure, Mourinho’s criticism of the club doctor and physio for going onto the field to treat Hazard, meaning that the midfielder had to leave the pitch for a moment afterwards, was completely out of order and I would expect him to apologize.

None of the newly promoted clubs managed to start their Premier League tenures with a victory, though Watford came closest as they led twice against Everton, but were pegged back twice and had to settle for a 2-2 draw.  Bournemouth were beaten 1-0 at home by a new look Aston Villa side, which featured six players making their debut for the club.  Norwich were unlucky not to get a point in their home encounter with Crystal Palace, as Cameron Jerome had an overhead kick ruled out for a high boot, an effort that would have made the scoreline 2-2.  However, new Premier League referee Simon Hooper disallowed it and Yohan Cabaye gave the Eagles a 3-1 victory with an injury time strike.  The other match of the weekend saw Leicester continue their impressive form from the end of last season, as they took advantage of poor Sunderland defending – particularly from former Tottenham player, Younes Kaboul – to rack up a 4-2 victory.

This weekend, there is a clash between two of the top four, as West Ham host Leicester City, as well as the aforementioned battle between the sides that finished first and second in May, as Manchester City take on Chelsea.  Crystal Palace will be hoping to inflict more London derby pain on Arsenal; Spurs take on a Stoke side who did the double of over them last year and have just added Xherdan Shaqiri to their squad; while Bournemouth travel to Liverpool.  Southampton face Everton in the early kick off on Saturday; Watford host West Brom; Newcastle are in South Wales to play Swansea; and Sunderland entertain Norwich.

Before all of that, on Friday Manchester United are in Birmingham to take on Aston Villa, a fixture that they have gone unbeaten in the last 19 seasons.  The match was moved from Saturday at the request of the police because of a planned march in Walsall by the far-right group English Defence League, who want the national team to focus on a more cautious approach to their game are a far-right group who firmly proclaim that they are non-violent and non-racist and protest against Islam outside of Mosques.

Predictions

Last week 3-7 (some things don’t change!); Season, 3-7

Home team listed first

Aston Villa vs Manchester United – Away win

Southampton vs Everton – Home win

Sunderland vs Norwich – Draw

Swansea vs Newcastle – Draw

Tottenham vs Stoke – Away win

Watford vs West Brom – Home win

West Ham vs Leicester – Home win

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal – Away win

Manchester City vs Chelsea – Draw

Liverpool vs Bournemouth – Home win

With just six weeks of the regular season to go, the final two teams (Pittsburgh and Carolina) have their byes this week, before the race for the playoffs heats up from Thanksgiving to the New Year.  A few notes on the Week 11 action before getting to this week’s picks:

• Green Bay scored more than 50 points for the second consecutive week and were again out of sight by half-time in their victory over the Eagles.  They have to go on the road this weekend, but in Minnesota against a Vikings team without Adrian Peterson, who has been suspended by the NFL for the remainder of the season.
• Arizona may have lost Carson Palmer, but their defense stepped up and held the Lions to just 6 points as the Cardinals moved to a league-best 9-1.  They have a three game lead in the NFC West ahead of the Seahawks, who were defeated 24-20 in Kansas City, and the 49ers, who picked off Eli Manning five times in their 16-10 win over the Giants.
• It was not a good weekend for Peyton either, who threw two interceptions in Denver’s 22-7 loss in St. Louis, meaning that for once, Cooper Manning had the best stats line of any of the three brothers last Sunday.
• The Patriots had a record day from their third string running back, Jonas Grey, who rushed for 199 yards and four touchdowns in their 42-20 win over the Colts in Indianapolis.  My guess: by the playoffs that performance will be a distant memory and he will not be getting any significant carries for New England.
• New Orleans had not lost at home with Sean Payton as coach since 2010 prior to their loss to San Francisco in Week 10. They contrived to lose two consecutive games, falling to a Bengals team who had been soundly beaten at home by Cleveland in their previous contest.
• That loss for the Saints meant that the Falcons moved to the top of the NFC South by narrowly beating the Panthers 19-17, thanks to a late missed field goal by Carolina.  Atlanta’s record right now is 4-6, but the are on course to hose a playoff game in the Wild Card round.  Except they won’t, because their next four games are against the Browns, Cardinals, Packers and Steelers – combined record: 29-12.
• San Diego scored a touchdown within the first minute of their contest with the Raiders, then failed to add anything more than a couple of field goals in a dire 13-6 victory over winless Oakland.
• There is a good chance the game between the Jets and Bills in Buffalo will not be played on Sunday as scheduled, as the city in upstate New York has been buried by huge snowfalls.

Week 12 Picks

Last week, 10-4; Season, 87-74

Home teams in bold

Raiders +7.5 over Chiefs

Browns +3.5 over Falcons

Jets +4.5 over Bills

Bears -5.5 over Buccaneers

Texans -1.5 over Bengals

Lions +6.5 over Patriots

Packers -9.5 over Vikings

Eagles -11.5 over Titans

Colts -13.5 over Jaguars

Rams +5.5 over Chargers

Seahawks -6.5 over Cardinals

Broncos -7.5 over Dolphins

49ers -8.5 over Washington

Cowboys -3.5 over Giants

Ravens +3.5 over Saints

 

This week marks the midway point of the NFL season, so this is the time when we roughly know which teams are looking most likely to go deep in the playoffs, while one or two teams might put together a run in the second half that propels them into January with the sort of momentum that led the Ravens and Giants (twice) to recent Super bowl wins. Here’s a look at the main talking points from Week 8:

• In the first game of 15 almost continuous NFL action last Sunday, Detroit came from 21-0 down at half time to beat the Falcons 22-21 at Wembley Stadium in London.  The winning field goal as time expired was fortuitous for the Lions, who missed the original kick but were called for a delay of game and kicker Matt Prater made his second effort from five yards further away.
• It was not so much the fact that Green Bay lost to the Saints that bothered me – New Orleans has a fantastic home record and they are hard to beat in the Super Dome – but the fact that during a first half drive, on a second and goal play the Packers put in defensive linesman Julius Peppers as a wide receiver, then Aaron Rodgers threw to him and the former Bears man could not catch a ball that hit his chest. Green Bay ended up getting just a field goal from that drive and did not score another touchdown until the contest was well beyond them.
• Washington not only beat the Cowboys in Dallas, but also knocked Tony Romo out of the game for much of the second half with a back injury.  Romo was able to come back to try to lead a drive at the end of regulation and in overtime, but Washington’s defense was fantastic all night and helped Colt McCoy enjoy a victory in his first start at quarterback in the NFL since 2011.
• After their lopsided week 4 loss to the Chiefs, many were writing off the Patriots as a spent force; their 51 point tally against the Bears last week brought their total to 158 in the last four games, during which time they are 4-0.  This weekend, it is Brady vs Manning XVI as the Broncos head to Foxborough to take on New England.
• The Colts were considered to have one of the best defenses in the league, then gave up 53 points to the Steelers in Pittsburgh.  Cincinnati overcame Baltimore and Cleveland defeated Oakland, so all four AFC North teams currently have a winning record.
• In the battle of Missouri, the Chiefs beat the Rams in St. Louis, though the week continue so well for Kansas City, as the Royals lost in game 7 of the World Series to the Giants last night.  Since I’m not going to write a separate MLB post, let me just say: Madison Bumgarner.  Wow.

Week 9 Picks

Last week, 8-7; Season, 66-55

Home teams in bold

Panthers +2.5 over Saints

Bengals -11.5 over Jaguars

Buccaneers +6.5 over Browns

Cardinals +4.5 over Cowboys

Chiefs -9.5 over Jets

Chargers +1.5 over Dolphins

Washington +1.5 over Vikings

Eagles -2.5 over Texans

49ers -9.5 over Rams

Patriots +3.5 over Broncos

Seahawks -14.5 over Raiders

Ravens +0.5 over Steelers

Colts -3.5 over Giants