Survivor Season 43 Episode 5 Recap

October 19, 2022 ~ John Lally ~ Leave a comment

A recap of tonight’s episode of Survivor is coming up, just as soon as I trade away a bead I was saving for my daughter to get back two far inferior beads…

So it is, six years since there was last a post on this website, I return from hiatus and the mandate of covering Politics, Sport and TV continues, but now with some added competitive reality television shows thrown in. Back in the day, you’d have found Mad Men, Sons of Anarchy and some other drama series recaps on this page, but fast forward from 2016 and suddenly hardly any show is watched weekly anymore, with the exception of shows like Survivor and The Amazing Race. Since I have become a fan of both in the intermittent year, I’m excited to return with a recap of tonight’s episode.

Let’s start at the beginning: Borneo. Okay maybe not quite back that far, but let’s do a quick run through of what had happened so far this season. First off, in the opening episode, after Jeff Probst had spent a good twenty minutes finding out the origin stories of every player this season of Survivor, we had the Baka tribe (who will always wear yellow) lose the first challenge, go to tribal council and decide to vote out a woman of color, Morriah. This was in spite of the fact that an older bald dude with a beard who is called Mike, but is not the older bald dude with a beard who is called Mike from season 42, because this guy wants to be called Gabler – told everyone immediately after the challenge it was his fault and he wouldn’t hide behind his immunity idol but, in no way contradicting himself, that he would play his shot in the dark. His fellow tribe mates took this flip flopping to heart, and voted off someone who seemed completely solid and had not messed up in the challenge. It’s almost like they wanted him to be waking them up by placing palm fronds on them a few episodes later.

Episode two was much different, in that we saw Justine, a woman of color, voted out but this time by the Vesi tribe (who will always wear red); in episode three, the same tribe saw the majority suddenly decide that strength was more important than alliance and they voted out Nneka, who is a woman of color. It therefore almost began to seem like progress was being made in episode four, when some shenanigans between Vesi and Baka sent Coco (who will always wear blue) to tribal council and for their first vote out, they got rid of Lindsay, who is a Caucasian woman.

So through four episodes, it has been a case of not so much drop the 4, keep the 3 for Survivor 43, more like take away 26, keep the 17 as we had a boot list more akin to Gabon with the gender imbalance so far. It would, however, become even worse than that should Cassidy become the fifth straight female in a row to be voted out, which was what we find out is the plan from Geo as the episode begins. Both he and Ryan are so sure they are in charge of things at Coco that they seem to have overlooked the fact that it was Karla and James who told them to vote out Lindsay right before tribal council. There’s definitely enough foreshadowing here – before where the credits used to be – to suggest that they could be returning there again by the end of the hour as both Cassidy and Geo have confessionals in which they display far too much confidence that they are in a powerful position within the tribe.

Next up, we visit the dysfunctional Baka tribe, which I have been dying to go to tribal council ever since Elie had tried to play off the Gabler’s two tribal idol – which is obviously still valid and nobody would ever think was not – was no longer in play and is convinced that the person who’s speciality involves implanting heart valve’s into people’s bodies, thinks that it meant any two tribal councils, not ones he was specifically at. To begin with today, Elie and Jeanine are ~~looking for idols~~ heading to the water well when they happen to notice a ‘Survivor Tree’ (side note: absolutely love the editing wink and nods towards the confessionals and the way they lit the tree up to highlight what Elie was saying) that surely contains an advantage somewhere upon it. In what seemed like a pre-determined decision, it was Jeanine who went to go and get it (after about six thousand ants had also found it, but seemingly did not want to risk their votes by opening it) while Elie went and stood nearby. I have a feeling this was less altruism from Elie, and more she recognizes the power of knowing where all the advantages are, without having the target on your back by actually having them yourself.

She need not have worried about that too much though, because within a few minutes everyone on the Yellow tribe was fully aware of the fact that Jeanine had an idol. They had decided to tell Sami about it, but then got caught out reading the note by the water well when Owen came upon them, saw them reading pieces of paper and they attempted to hide it, only for Owen to ask “So where was it?” That they actually thought they might get way without him noticing they clearly had found an advantage was underestimating perhaps even more than they had Gabler with his own idol. What was he going to think the paper was? A little sudoku the producers had given them to pass the time? After a confessional where Owen speculates that he could easily blow up his own game by refusing to give up his bead to make her idol valid, thereby making himself a target and someone neither of them would trust again in the game; everyone plays along and gives Jeanine the beads from their bags and then encourages Gabler to do the same. Now he’s been saving some for his daughters, but is willing to give up two, terrible, boring green beads. These are not the right beads but the correct, awesome, big yellow one with blue squiggly lines is one he really wants to keep…until Jeanine asks again and he caves. Dude, you had the best excuse not to hand it over and now, not only did you give someone you’re working against power, your daughter will be watching this episode, looking at the boring green beads you gave her when you got back from Fiji, and wondering why you so willingly gave up the awesome bead.

Anyway, Sami takes him aside to make sure he fully understands what he’d done with the bead so that he did not have to wait till tonight to feel regret.

Sami: Listen, those beads that we just gave Jeanine

Gabler: Uh huh

Sami: That gave her an idol

Gabler: …Gave Jeanine? We just gave her a fake idol?

Sami: No we gave her a real idol

Gabler:…

Sami: She found an advantage. I didn’t have time to tell you

Gabler: *blurry mouth censor*

Come to think of it, it took him so long to understand what he was being told, maybe I get where Elie was coming from after all and I think he could still be convinced his idol has expired.

Next up we go to a challenge and it’s for…immunity! This early in the episode I wonder if this means we will have two tribal councils, but no it’s only the last team that loses a player and we continue the one per week vote out ratio of the season so far. For the challenge, they have to get through a bunch of sticks barrier, a la the one they had to build for each other in Palau, but has already been made, then go through some obstacles, over a see saw with water to fill a bucket to lower a gate, none of which matters because it all comes down to which of three people can throw three balls up a ramp and onto a ledge before the others. In this crucial position it ends up being Ryan for Coco, Dwight for Vesi and Sami for Baka. After Dwight gets his three up, it’s between the blue and yellow tribes and a mistake from Ryan, where he knocks off the two balls he had already gotten on his ledge, Sami comes through and does another celebration that shows his tribe he’s probably younger than the 24 he’s claimed to them he is.

Except, after the challenge we get a confessional from Ryan who tells us that he had in fact, thrown the challenge because he wanted to get rid of Cassidy and had thrown the ball deliberately to knock off his other two! How clever! How absolutely positive that he’s probably going to go home then. I’ve rewatched the tape and do I think he did it on purpose? Possibly – he was aiming at the left hand side and his tribe mates were telling him not to, so I don’t not believe him, but if it actually was a strategic decision, it was a bad one. Nothing we have seen so far (not least because she’s hardly been shown much at all in the edit) suggests that Cassidy is someone who needs to be gotten rid of as soon as possible – I mean they put up with Coach for 36 days in Tocantins – or who represents a threat to Ryan at any point, so what’s the urgency to go back to tribal council?

At the end of the challenge, the red tribe got the reward as well, which was a big tarp for them and – unlike last week – they did not take the opportunity to swap for any previous reward, which apparently they can do and according to Jeff, has always been a thing. Rather than ask to go to the Great Barrier Reef to illegally take Coral with Colby and Jerri (even if they had, Colby would still get all the credit); or to have dinner on the Great Wall of China with Todd, Courtney and Denise; they keep the tarp. They also get to decide who is going to go on a journey from every tribe and they pick Geo (Coco), Jeanine (Baka) and Jesse (Vesi).

Before we get to that though, the strategic mastermind of Ryan decides that he should be the decoy to tell Cassidy, as he was a good actor, that they should not talk game with him, and to make sure the energy had changed so that Cassidy would buy into it and would not play her shot in the dark. Since Karla and James relay all this information to her, it makes Ryan’s martyr approach (two Coach references in my first Survivor post) even more see through and thus Cassidy is able to enjoy it enough to get paranoid and think she might actually be the target, which makes Karla and James consider switching it to her…didn’t we see this last week?

Meanwhile, on the adventure, this time they are going out to a big rock, or hiking an incline to get to a decision, but the trio instead have to get on a boat that takes them directly to a sand spit. Then past the sand spit to a dock where they get a boat to paddle back to that sand spit. Really seemed like the producers were just messing with them at this point, but the journey does give Geo the chance to assure the other two that he really needs this advantage, please do not take it away from him, because he really needs it. The other two, realizing that they only had a one in three shot of getting something of unknown value, but could potentially make an ally by allowing Geo to have it, both decide to risk their vote anyway. This decision is particularly costly, because it ends up being Geo who wins anyway and he gets the worst advantage that does not come in an hour glass shape, as it is the Knowledge is Power, back to fail for a third time.

At this point, we have the following advantages and vote changes in play:

Vesi: Cody – Hat Immunity Idol; Noelle – steal a vote; Jesse – no vote; Dwight – nothing

Baka: Gabler – Immunity idol for one more tribal council; Jeanine – no vote and an immunity idol; Sami/Owen/Elie – nothing

Coco: Karla – Immunity idol; Geo* – Knowledge is Power (but is unaware of Karla’s idol); Ryan – ability to throw challenges he shouldn’t throw; Cassidy/James – nothing

*Okay not for long

Before we get to Tribal Council; Geo tells only the people he can trust (everyone but Cassidy) that he got the KIP advantage because he knows they have his back and he’s running this tribe. Since they know he did not get anything that could be used to save him that night, that pretty much seals his fate. Jeff leads Coco through the dance of asking Ryan about his culpability in the failure at the immunity challenge and how he seems so kind to just fall on his sword. All the while, Cassidy is rolling her eyes, but does not get called out, so the blindside stays secret, Ryan gets stunned, but Geo goes home, at least with the KIP as a souvenir. Which is more than what we can say for the awesome bead that Gabler was saving for his daughter.

Next week: From the preview, it looks like we are hitting the merge territory, but of course in this new era, nothing is simple and everything must be earned, so we will be seeing some kind of twist. Let’s hope it’s not that it’s Chilis instead of Applebee’s this season, but that the smashed hour glasses are no more and whoever wins immunity, keeps it

2016 Presidential Election Prediction

November 7, 2016 ~ John Lally ~ Leave a comment

After I covered the election four years ago so extensively, this time around I’ve not written a single word about the campaign (at least not the real life one, and in main part because my favored candidate lost in the Primaries, but you can read my novel about a fictional Presidential campaign, available here). There has been so much that could have been said, but at this point, the only thing left is to figure out who will win. Somehow, it’s close, but who is going to get the 270 electoral college votes needed to become the next President of the United States. Clinton, Trump pick up big wins

Let’s start with the states that are definitely going to vote for someone who made a mistake with an e-mail server; has remained loyally married to a philanderer; and who is fiscally center-right:

Definite Clinton Wins (If she loses any of these, you can turn off the coverage early):

Electoral College vote total in brackets

California (55); Oregon (7); Washington (12); Illinois (20); New York (29); Vermont (3); Massachusetts (11); Rhode Island (4); Connecticut (7); New Jersey (14); Maryland (10); DC (3); Hawai’i (4); Delaware (3) (Total ECVs – 182)

Now onto those that are definitely going to vote for the misogynistic, racist, kn0w-nothing, bullying, sex predator:

Definite Trump Wins (If he loses any of these, you can break open a bottle of champagne):

South Carolina (9); Georgia (16); Alabama (9); Mississippi (6); Arkansas (6); Louisiana (8); Texas (38); Oklahoma (7); Kansas (6); Missouri (10); Idaho (4); Montana (3); Alaska (3); Arizona (11 – don’t believe the hype, this is staying red); Utah (6 – nor about Utah, the third party affect will diminish on election day); North Dakota (3); South Dakota (3); Wyoming (3); West Virginia (5); Kentucky (8); Tennessee (11); Indiana (11); Nebraska (5) ((Total ECVs – 191)

That’s a lot of states for someone who, and I cannot emphasize this enough, knows literally nothing about politics and expresses no interest in learning. It’s a lot of electoral college votes for someone who cannot finish a sentence, other than saying “it’s going to be great, it’s going to be amazing, it’s so great, bigly, bigly, bigly.”

So, in the definite states, Trump leads 191 to 182 in the Electoral College. Let’s move on (I should point out, I have not worked out my prediction to the finish yet so I don’t know who I’m going to end up prognosticating as the winner).

States I’m Pretty Confident of the Outcome, but not 100% Certain

Maine – Split Clinton 3, Trump 1;

Clinton – New Mexico (5); Colorado (9); Minnesota (10); Wisconsin (11); Michigan (16); Virginia (13)

Trump – Iowa (6); Ohio (18); New Hampshire (4)

Add all of those to where we were before and the race looks like this:

Trump 220 – Clinton 248

With four states to go…Nevada, Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Now obviously, if Nevada and North Carolina went to Clinton and the other two went to Trump, we would end up with a tie in the electoral college. However, I do not think Clinton will win either of those two, and I actually think the only one she might win of the four is Pennsylvania. However, even that is in jeopardy, despite her lead in the polls, since a transit strike in Philadelphia could significantly affect turnout. However, lets say Clinton does win that one and the other three go to Trump – this is how the electoral college votes would stand:

Clinton – 268; Trump 270.

I hope I’m wrong, I genuinely do – perhaps the early voter reports from Nevada suggesting large numbers of Hispanic people are showing up to cast their votes will help Clinton win the Silver State. We shall see. If I am right and Trump does become elected the next President, there will of course be serious consequences, but one thing that must be accepted is that conventional wisdom around elections is no longer valid. In the UK, in 2015, there was supposed to be no clear winner of the general election, yet the Conservatives gained significant ground and now enjoy an outright majority. Plus in June, most people expected “Remain” to win in the Brexit referendum, yet leave triumphed by quite a healthy margin in the end.

The one thing you can do to affect the outcome: if you have a vote, use it.

Premier League Roundup and Preview – City beat Chelsea

August 21, 2015August 22, 2015 ~ John Lally ~ Leave a comment

Last Sunday, Manchester City recorded their second 3-0 victory in as many games to start the season and propelled themselves to the top of the early table. What made this win all the sweeter for City was the fact that the opponents they vanquished were the reigning champions, Chelsea.

Aguero scores City's first in their commanding win over Chelsea — Aguero scores City’s first in their commanding win over Chelsea

City controlled from the outset and Sergio Aguero missed three early chances, two of which were well saved by Asmir Begovic, playing in goal for the Blues in place of the suspended Thibaut Courtois. Just after the half hour mark, Aguero did finally break the deadlock and gave his team the lead with a well taken goal. Jose Mourinho opted to remove John Terry from his back line, the first time he had substituted the club captain in a league match in either of his spells in charge at Chelsea. In the end, the change made no difference and two late goals from Vincent Kompany and a cracker from Fernandinho made the scoreline as convincing as the performance had felt throughout.

Or, if you believe Chelsea’s website and Mourinho, City were very fortunate to come away with a victory and the turning point was a Ramires’ goal being incorrectly ruled out for offside. Maybe I was watching a different game, but I thought that Manuel Pelligrini’s men were impressive, while Chelsea put in their third (including the irrelevant Community Shield) consecutive weary looking performance of the young campaign and really need to improve if they are to have any chance of repeating their success from last season. To help their chances, they have added Pedro to their attacking ranks, as he signed from Barcelona in midweek, choosing the London club over Manchester United, who had previously shown interest in signing the Spaniard. One final note, the best moment of the game for me was when Chelsea’s replacement medical staff – in for the sidelined Doctor and physio who Mourinho vilified for daring to enter the pitch in the opening week when Eden Hazard was feigning injury – came on to treat a player and the City fans sang that they would be “sacked in the morning”.

Adnan Januzaj celebrates his goal and that there is a shrimp sale at the Crab Shack

Louis van Gaal and the Red Devils need not be too disappointed on missing out on Pedro, as they have started the season with six points from two games, even if they are yet to play well. Last Friday, they defeated Aston Villa 1-0 in Birmingham, with Belgian youngster Adnan ~~Syed~~ Januzaj scoring the only goal in his first start since February. The Manchester clubs are joined at the top of the table by two other clubs who have 100% records thus far: Liverpool, who beat Bournemouth 1-0 thanks to a Christian Benteke goal that should have been disallowed as Philippe Coutinho attempted to play the ball from an offside position; and Leicester, who stunned West Ham by winning 2-1 at Upton Park. Continue reading →

Premier League Roundup and Preview – Man City vs Chelsea

August 13, 2015 ~ John Lally ~ 1 Comment

With the first round of fixtures in the 2015/16 Premier League season officially in the books, it is time to make snap judgements based on the 90 minutes of action we have seen of each club. Here’s what we already know for sure and definitely will not change our mind about by next Monday, let alone in May:

Arsenal aren’t going to win the league after all, they’re rubbish!
Cech does Mourinho’s bidding in his first match for Arsenal
Petr Cech is not going to be the missing piece of the puzzle for the Gunners, he is a secret spy from Chelsea, still working for Jose Mourinho!
Leicester are brilliant under Claudio Ranieri and any relegation danger that was predicted for them was far too short-sighted!
Chelsea cannot defend and their medical staff are so bad at their job, they even try to treat Eden Hazard when he is clearly play-acting and trying to con the referee.
Spurs are shit!

Okay, so the last one I actually agree with. Tottenham started off their campaign in a very familiar pattern: they dominated the opening exchanges away at Manchester united; should have taken the lead when Christian Eriksen was played through by Harry Kane; then gave away a soft goal that could have been avoided if Nabil Bentaleb could pass and Kyle Walker had cleared the ball, rather than scuffing into his own net. Spurs then did nothing of note until the 88th minute, when they seemed to remember they needed to attack in order to get something out of the match, but the effort was too little, too late and they lost 1-0. I am going to end up sounding like a broken record on this, so until it happens, I’ll just copy and paste this next sentence into every football post I write:

Tom Carroll should be starting in central midfield for Tottenham.

There were other, far more exciting games as well last weekend, but Stoke’s 1-0 home defeat to Liverpool was not one of them. Save for Philippe Coutinho’s magnificent solo strike to win the match for the Reds five minutes from time, it was a drab affair, though Brendan Rodgers will be happy to lay to rest the ghost of his team’s 6-1 defeat on the same ground on the final day of last season.

As alluded to in the massive overreactions from the opening week, Arsenal were upset at home in their opening match by West Ham, who won 2-0 at the Emirates. It was an impressive performance by the Hammers in Slaven Bilic’s first Premier League match as manager and 16 year-old Reece Oxford has been singled out for his showing in the center of midfield. However, it should also be remembered that West Ham have been playing competitive matches since the beginning of July, thanks to their involvement in the qualifying rounds of the Europa League. This could explain why they were in better early form than the Gunners and I expect Bilic’s side to drop off after Christmas as players start to fatigue from a long campaign. As for Petr Cech’s mistakes, they were not what you would expect from a top class goalkeeper, but everyone has their off days and he was not helped by poor marking from the defenders for the opening goal.

Why did the Chelsea medical staff go onto the pitch to help a player who is lying down with a hand over his face?!

Another team that showed an uncharacteristically poor defensive performance in their opening game was Chelsea, who conceded twice and were lucky to escape with a 2-2 draw at home to Swansea, especially after Thibaut Courtois was sent off with half an hour to go for a professional foul on Bafetimbi Gomis. With the Belgian keeper now suspended for the clash with Manchester City, who started their season with a convincing 3-0 win away at West Brom, it could spell an early crisis for Jose Mourinho’s side. However, if the Blues’ manager’s track record is anything to go by, it is perfectly possible that not only will they be able to keep City at bay on Sunday, they may not concede another goal anytime soon. One thing is for sure, Mourinho’s criticism of the club doctor and physio for going onto the field to treat Hazard, meaning that the midfielder had to leave the pitch for a moment afterwards, was completely out of order and I would expect him to apologize.

None of the newly promoted clubs managed to start their Premier League tenures with a victory, though Watford came closest as they led twice against Everton, but were pegged back twice and had to settle for a 2-2 draw. Bournemouth were beaten 1-0 at home by a new look Aston Villa side, which featured six players making their debut for the club. Norwich were unlucky not to get a point in their home encounter with Crystal Palace, as Cameron Jerome had an overhead kick ruled out for a high boot, an effort that would have made the scoreline 2-2. However, new Premier League referee Simon Hooper disallowed it and Yohan Cabaye gave the Eagles a 3-1 victory with an injury time strike. The other match of the weekend saw Leicester continue their impressive form from the end of last season, as they took advantage of poor Sunderland defending – particularly from former Tottenham player, Younes Kaboul – to rack up a 4-2 victory.

This weekend, there is a clash between two of the top four, as West Ham host Leicester City, as well as the aforementioned battle between the sides that finished first and second in May, as Manchester City take on Chelsea. Crystal Palace will be hoping to inflict more London derby pain on Arsenal; Spurs take on a Stoke side who did the double of over them last year and have just added Xherdan Shaqiri to their squad; while Bournemouth travel to Liverpool. Southampton face Everton in the early kick off on Saturday; Watford host West Brom; Newcastle are in South Wales to play Swansea; and Sunderland entertain Norwich.

Before all of that, on Friday Manchester United are in Birmingham to take on Aston Villa, a fixture that they have gone unbeaten in the last 19 seasons. The match was moved from Saturday at the request of the police because of a planned march in Walsall by the far-right group English Defence League, who ~~want the national team to focus on a more cautious approach to their game~~ are a far-right group who firmly proclaim that they are non-violent and non-racist and protest against Islam outside of Mosques.

Predictions

Last week 3-7 (some things don’t change!); Season, 3-7

Home team listed first

Aston Villa vs Manchester United – Away win

Southampton vs Everton – Home win

Sunderland vs Norwich – Draw

Swansea vs Newcastle – Draw

Tottenham vs Stoke – Away win

Watford vs West Brom – Home win

West Ham vs Leicester – Home win

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal – Away win

Manchester City vs Chelsea – Draw

Liverpool vs Bournemouth – Home win

Premier League 2015/16 Season Preview

August 5, 2015 ~ John Lally ~ 2 Comments

It’s the most exciting time of the football season, as the friendly matches come to an end and the fixtures that count begin this weekend, with everything possible and fans dreaming that this could be a big year for their club. It is a fresh slate now, everyone starts on zero points and has the opportunity to…

Urgh, I can’t do this. Maybe for most teams, there can be a sense of enormous optimism surrounding the new season. But I’m a Tottenham fan and let’s be honest, this year is going to be just as disappointing as all of the others. It is honestly a coincidence that my last post of 2014/15 was after the North London derby – Spurs did go rapidly downhill after that peak, but I was working on another project that took up all my writing time. But any hope I might have had in that post (and looking back at it, there was not much, since I correctly predicted they would be back below Arsenal within three days) was evaporated by the end of another poor season, albeit one that we somehow managed to finish fifth on the final day (thanks for thrashing Liverpool, Stoke!).

Pochettino has put all his eggs in one Harry Kane shaped basked

There are some major danger signs heading into the new season for Tottenham. The biggest one is how much we will be once against relying on the form of Harry Kane and Christian Eriksen to win matches for us. Now Kane was brilliant from November to March, but then tailed off in the final two months of the season. Last year he scored 31 goals in all competitions, including 21 in the Premier League, but what if he is only 80% as effective this campaign? That would still be a very good return (say 16/17 league goals) but his strikes were worth 24 points* to Tottenham last year. So if Harry Kane is very good, but not outstandingly brilliant this time around, then his goals would be worth around 19 points, a five point drop for Spurs.

*As in if you removed Kane’s goals from the final score, how many points would Spurs have dropped. Against Arsenal, he scored both in a 2-1 win, so his value for the match was 3 points, changing it from a loss to a victory. Versus Aston Villa he scored 1 in another 2-1 win, so it is a value of 2 points as it took the team from 1 point to 3.

Of course, last year he did not play in the first dozen or so games, so there is a chance he could be worth even more, but that relies on his not getting injured or missing any playing time, but I’d be surprised if that happens given how much he was relied upon last year, then played for England in the European Under-21 Championships, and has been fielded by Mauricio Pochettino for 70+ minutes of pre-season games, including on Tuesday against Real Madrid, less than four days before the Premier League campaign kicks off at Old Trafford.

Why is this happening? Because Tottenham do not have any other options up front. Last year, Emmanuel Adebayor and Roberto Soldado were often bench-warmers and rarely played after November, but those two enigmatic strikers are likely on their way out before the month is up (to Villa and Villareal respectively) and no replacements appear to be arriving imminently. I’m sure we will do a last-minute, August 31st 11pm deal again for a player who will probably work out just as well as Grzegorz Rasiak did (yes it’s been 10 years since that transfer, but I’ll never forget that all of us away fans at Fulham had to scream at himto jump to challenge for headers in his final match for the club five months later. JUMP!)

Alongside the lack of strikers, we could lose our best player of the last two years (Hugo Lloris) before the transfer window slams (the only verb you can use for the occasion) shut, as he is wanted by both Manchester United and Paris Saint-Germain. Also, it appears as though the central midfield will be anchored by a pairing of two out of Nabil Bentaleb, Ryan Mason and, defender, Eric Dier. Paulinho, Etienne Capoue and Benjamin Stambouli have all been shipped out, but the most frustrating thing is not that Pochettino is giving the youngster a chance there, I like that, but rather he is not playing the right one. If Tom Carroll is given a run in the side, his range of passing and cool head in the midfield would mean that people would be clamoring for him to be called up to the England team, that’s how good he looks. But, for some reason, odds are that by September 1st, he’ll have been shipped out on loan and some Championship side will get to enjoy watching him this season.

The other sign that this could be a very bad season for Tottenham, is how much they relied upon late goals last year. In 2014/15, they picked up 14 points in the 85th minute or later of matches. On one side, this shows that Pochettino had them fighting fit until the final whistle was blown, which is great, but it would be statistically unrealistic to expect them to grab so many crucial late goals again. So, if say they were to pick 7 points in the final five minutes this campaign, alongside Kane being only 80% as effective, then that’s 12 points removed from last year’s total. In 2014/15, that would have meant finishing 10th in the table and I fully expect that to be around where we end up this year (I’d believe anything from 7th to 14th).

So my first prediction for 2015/16 (which is slightly more than a long-shot than the rest of my prognostications for the division, which I promise I will get to in a minute and leave Spurs alone) is this:

Mauricio Pochettino will be the first Premier League manager to leave his job in 2015/16 – Odds 20/1

I will even predict when it will happen: November 8th, the day we will be thrashed by Arsenal at the Emirates. By then, Tottenham will have played a dozen games, I project they will have a similar number of points to fixtures and Daniel Levy will once again replace his coach. My only hope is the replacement will be Jürgen Klinsmann…

And so, onto the other predictions for this season. Continue reading →

Premier League – Spurs Beat Arsenal and Chelsea Move Closer to Title

February 10, 2015 ~ John Lally ~ 1 Comment

Tottenham Win The North London Derby

As was the case with their game against Chelsea on New Year’s Day, the early part of Saturday’s North London derby appeared to be a typical Spurs performance – on both occasions I was pleasantly surprised by what followed.

Kane heads in the winner against Arsenal on Saturday

After dominating the early exchanges, Tottenham fell behind after some poor defending to a well-taken Mesut Özil goal and went into half-time 1-0 down on the score sheet, but ahead in manner of performance and time of possession. It is goals that win games though and, luckily for Mauricio Pochettino, he has a man who has found the knack of getting them. That Harry Kane grew up 15 minutes from White Hart Lane and is a Spurs fan must have made scoring a brace against their biggest rivals – including a fantastically placed header to win the match four minutes from the end – all the more sweeter for the English striker. To those who remain in the crowd rather than on the pitch, it is great to see a local lad come good for the club. As the chant goes, Harry Kane, he’s one of of our own.

Any victory over Arsenal will is significant for us Tottenham supporters, but this result had wider implications as well. It lifted Spurs above the Gunners in the table (albeit probably just for three days, but we will get to that in a minute); moved Pochettino’s men to within a point of the Champions League qualification places; and extended a secretly-not-too-bad home league record against Arsenal in the Premier League era. Since the rebranding of the top flight in 1992, Spurs have finished below their arch rivals in 20 of the 22 completed seasons. However, in the 23 North London derbies played at White Hart Lane in that period, Tottenham actually have a positive record, winning eight, drawing ten and losing just five.

Despite all the good feeling that surrounds Spurs right now, there is unlikely to be much time to enjoy it. On Tuesday, they face a trip to Anfield to face Liverpool, who have thrashed them on each of the last three meetings between the two sides, while the Gunners have a home fixture against bottom club Leicester. Why could there not have been a break this week, followed by the F.A. Cup this weekend and Tottenham could have basked in the glow of their derby win for a fortnight. Instead, reality will come crashing back down upon them (us), along with some Daniel Sturridge goals and – somehow – Martin Skrtel will get a brace. Continue reading →

Premier League Preview – North London and Merseyside Derbies

February 6, 2015 ~ John Lally ~ 1 Comment

North London Derby

Chadli earned Spurs a point at the Emirates earlier this season

A lot has happened in the last week in the Premier League: the transfer window shut, leaving clubs unable to add to their squads before the end of the season; the man who has managed the third most games in the Premier League resigned; and there was a whole round of fixtures last weekend. However, all of that already seems like a distant memory as tomorrow will be one of the biggest games of Tottenham’s year – home to Arsenal.

The North London derby represents the last, best chance Spurs have of breaking the hoodoo of not having finished higher than their arch rivals for the last two decades, as a victory would lift them back above the Gunners in the table. However, the task looks particularly daunting right now, since Arsenal are in their best form of the campaign, have won their last three league matches without conceding a goal, and with Mesut Ozil and Theo Walcott both returning from long-term injuries, they have a plethora of attacking talent at their disposal. In the Guardian this week, they did a selection of combined XIs from the rivalry games that are taking place this weekend (also Liverpool/Everton and Atletico/Real Madrid) and somehow the Spurs/Arsenal team comprised six Tottenham players – a fact that I think will be completely laughable by the end of the lunchtime fixture on Saturday.

To be fair, I feared that Spurs would get embarrassed by Chelsea on New Year’s Day and they ended up winning that match 5-3, but the way they have been playing recently – although improved – does not fill me with any confidence heading into the North London Derby. Outside of Christian Eriksen and Harry Kane – both of whom have been in excellent form – there are no outfield players who can be replied upon on a weekly basis. Jan Vertonghen and Federico Fazio have formed a reasonable partnership in the center of defense over the last couple of months, but both are liable to make critical mistakes. In the center of midfield, Mousa Dembélé has returned to somewhere near the player he was when he first joined the club, but unless he is joined by Benjamin Stambouli – rather than Ryan Mason or Nabil Bentaleb – there is no dominance for Tottenham in the middle of the park. The return of Nacer Chadli following a three-week absence for a family issue is actually a huge plus, apart from Eriksen and Kane, he is the only player who has anything like a knack of finding the back of the net.

In comparison, the Arsenal squad is full of players who love to get a goal against Spurs: Walcott, Tomas Rosicky, Aaron Ramsey and Olivier Giroud. Throw in Ozil’s ability to completely tear us apart through the midfield and this could be a really messy game for us Tottenham supporters. I was sitting in the Paxton Road end for the 5-4 defeat back in 2004 – probably the worst game I’ve ever witnessed in person, perhaps combined with the 3-4 F.A. Cup replay loss to Manchester City – my fear is that this time, the Gunners might rack up a similar number, but we will be lucky to score even once.

So why am I looking forward to a fixture in which I think my team will be heavily beaten? Because there is always the hope that maybe we will win and maybe this time things will be different. But as any other fans of The Shawshank Redemption can tell you: hope is good thing, maybe the best of things (Dufresne); or, hope is dangerous, hope can drive a man insane (Red). Continue reading →

Super Bowl XLIX

January 30, 2015 ~ John Lally ~ 1 Comment

Yeah, I know, it’s the Super Bowl on Sunday. How exciting, right? Except, this time I really do not feel that enthusiastic about it. Why is that? Let me see…

Seahawks 28, Packers 22 (OT)

To be fair, if Brandon Bostick hadn't gone for the ball, Jordy Nelson only had AN EASY BLOODY CATCH — To be fair, if Brandon Bostick hadn’t gone for the ball, Jordy Nelson only had AN EASY BLOODY CATCH

AKA, the biggest collapse you can imagine in an NFL game, as Green Bay managed to throw away a 19-7 lead, WITH THE BALL, and only five minutes remaining. How did they do it? Well firstly an interception where, for some reason, Morgan Burnett just decided to slide before midfield when he had AN OPEN FIELD IN FRONT OF HIM AND HE COULD HAVE ENDED THE GAME; then a bad series, with a 3 and out; a collapsing defense gives up two touchdowns in one drive (one called back because Marshawn Lynch was an inch out of bounds); a fucked up (sorry for the swear, but what other word could you use) onside-kick recovery; another collapsing defense; and then worst of all, Aaron Rodgers calls TAILS…oh because “Tails never fails”, Aaron? Shall I tell you who would have called Heads, British Aaron Rodgers, and he’d have insisted it was the Queen’s Head on an English Pound Coin. (Just kidding, I still want to get rid of the monarchy). Oh and we had the ball at the one yard line twice in the first half, yet only got a total of six points from those two drives. GAHHH. Needless to say, when I’ve been wearing Packers gear around in the last two weeks, I’ve got many comments, mostly disbelief in the result and that I’m still displaying my fandom.

Anyway, Seattle are the reigning champions, very unlikeable for the above victory, Pete Carroll being Pete Carroll, Marshawn Lynch acting like he’s better than talking to the media; the number of their players who have been suspended for performance enhancing drugs over the last three years; their overrated home crowd who were basically silent before the fake field goal touchdown (which I did not even mention above, because it should have been a footnote to the victory); and a million other reasons. So, let’s hope their opponents are someone worth rooting for…

Patriots 45, Colts 7

New England deflated Indianapolis’ chances by airing out the football, as Tom Brady threw for 226 yards and three touchdowns. The Patriots ensured there was not too much pressure on them by racing into an early lead, then inflating their score in the second half.

Yes, the Patriots cheated (STOP THE PRESSES!!!!!) and had their balls too low. I mean the pressure in their footballs was too low. Or a little bit. And it might have been deliberate. Either way, they could have played perfectly, honorably and with great panache, I still would not want a Boston team to become champions in any sport, so this was not a deciding factor.

Actually, it was because I now want New England to win the Super Bowl, because even if they do, it will still be somewhat tainted, just like the Red Sox 2004 World Series win is by the number of players from that squad who have been implicated in PEDs since then. So, enjoy Patriots fans, I’m putting a big asterisk next to this Super Bowl victory.

Prediction:

*P*a*t*r*i*o*t*s* -1* over Seahawks

Conference Round, 2-0; Playoffs 8-2

Premier League Returns With Chelsea vs Man City

January 30, 2015 ~ John Lally ~ 1 Comment

After a two-week gap for the F.A. Cup and League Cup to take center stage, the Premier League returns to action this weekend, with the top two teams facing each other on Saturday. Before looking at that Chelsea vs Manchester City game, here’s a recap of what happened in the cup tournaments over the last fortnight.

F.A. Cup 4th Round

Chelsea 2 Bradford 4 - Football, bloody hell! — Chelsea 2 Bradford 4 – Football, bloody hell!

Last weekend was possibly the biggest collection of upsets in a single round of the F.A. Cup, none were bigger than the one that occurred at Stamford Bridge. Early on, it seemed as though League One’s Bradford City were going to take a hiding, as they fell behind 2-0 to Chelsea inside half an hour. However, the Bantams pulled one back before half time, then scored three more after the break to record an astonishing 4-2 victory over the current leaders of the Premier League. It was only the second time in either of Jose Mourinho’s spells in charge of the Blues that he has lost at home inside 90 minutes to another club from the English leagues – the other being Sunderland last season.

Manchester City exited the tournament at the exact same time, as they also lost at home to lower division opponents, as Middlesbrough triumphed 2-0 at the Etihad. The reigning champions had returned from a trip to the United Arab Emirates less than 24 hours before the match kicked off (in part due to a delayed flight, but mostly because of ridiculous planning to fit in lucrative friendlies in their owner’s home Emirate, Abu Dhabi). However, City still played pretty much their best players, so nothing should be taken away from Boro’s achievement.

In comparison to those two results, Manchester United’s 0-0 draw away at League Two’s Cambridge seems like a positive scoreline, especially since they now have a home replay to try to progress to the fifth round of a wide-open competition. Only United and Arsenal – who overcame a resilient Brighton comeback to win 3-2 – remain in the F.A. Cup out of the current top 6 in the Premier League, since Southampton were beaten 3-2 at home by Palace; while Leicester scored twice in the final 10 minutes to eliminate Spurs 2-1 at White Hart Lane. Bolton held Liverpool to a draw at Anfield; Blackburn knocked out Swansea 3-1; and the match between Sunderland and Fulham at the Stadium of Light ended goalless. Continue reading →

NFL Conference Round

January 16, 2015 ~ John Lally ~ 1 Comment

I do not really want to talk about this weekend’s NFL games. It’s become too important suddenly. The Packers are a game away from a return to the Super Bowl, which would be just their fourth since I have been a fan (I started following them and the sport in the early 1990s) and second since I’ve been living in the United States. Potential success is so close, yet there is such a big obstacle in the way: I do not want to listen to previews, I do not really want to write about it – I just want time to pass as quickly as possible so that the kick off can happen and I can sit there for three and a half hours, watching from behind my hands. I really do not want to talk about it, because I think that Green Bay are going to win and I do not want to dare type that out loud. Not because I believe in jinxes (I do not) or that I could have any affect on the game, but just I really want to be right about this. Still, let’s look at what happened last weekend, starting with the Packers.

Green Bay 26-21 Dallas Cowboys

The game was basically clinched when Dez Bryant dropped a throw from Tony Romo on the one yard line with four minutes to play…what? Okay so it was probably a catch, despite what the letter of the law said, but a couple of points that were not forthcoming in the furore over the reversed call:

With more than 3.5 minutes remaining, Aaron Rodgers would definitely have gotten the Packers into at least field goal range and the way he was playing that second half, would have gotten a touchdown to win it in all likelihood.
Because of that first point, it was a ridiculous play call from the Cowboys, who should have run on 4th and 2 not least to limit the amount of time Rodgers would have had to respond. They did not need that big play at that time, regardless of it looked like a catch to anyone not in a zebra suit.
Dan Bailey’s missed field goal towards the end of the first half was just as important to the Cowboys loss. If he makes it, Dallas goes in 17-7 up at the half (they would have kicked off and the Packers would not have had such good field position to start), instead it was 14-10.
People did not mention enough about how well Green Bay played because of that call: Rodgers was superb in the second half – ON ONE LEG!; Julius Peppers – who many dismissed as overrated when he signed as a free agent from Chicago – made a great play to force a fumble from DeMarco Murray; and Davante Adams made a superb catch and run for a touchdown, completely bamboozling the Cowboys defensive back.
In 2012, the Packers lost in Seattle thanks to a ridiculous catch call that was made by the replacement refs, which was the start of the Seahawks incredible home-field performance. This time, the Bryant non-catch was correctly ruled incomplete (per the rules of the game) and now Green Bay gets to go into Seattle and end their NFC dominance in front of the 12th man. Boy, I’m pumped up for this game, let’s move on to the other contests from last week.

Continue reading →

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