2016 Presidential Election Prediction

After I covered the election four years ago so extensively, this time around I’ve not written a single word about the campaign (at least not the real life one, and in main part because my favored candidate lost in the Primaries, but you can read my novel about a fictional Presidential campaign, available here). There has been so much that could have been said, but at this point, the only thing left is to figure out who will win. Somehow, it’s close, but who is going to get the 270 electoral college votes needed to become the next President of the United States.Clinton, Trump pick up big wins

Let’s start with the states that are definitely going to vote for someone who made a mistake with an e-mail server; has remained loyally married to a philanderer; and who is fiscally center-right:

Definite Clinton Wins (If she loses any of these, you can turn off the coverage early):

Electoral College vote total in brackets

California (55); Oregon (7); Washington (12); Illinois (20); New York (29); Vermont (3); Massachusetts (11); Rhode Island (4); Connecticut (7); New Jersey (14); Maryland (10); DC (3); Hawai’i (4); Delaware (3) (Total ECVs – 182)

Now onto those that are definitely going to vote for the misogynistic, racist, kn0w-nothing, bullying, sex predator:

Definite Trump Wins (If he loses any of these, you can break open a bottle of champagne):

South Carolina (9); Georgia (16); Alabama (9); Mississippi (6); Arkansas (6); Louisiana (8); Texas (38); Oklahoma (7); Kansas (6); Missouri (10); Idaho (4); Montana (3); Alaska (3); Arizona (11 – don’t believe the hype, this is staying red); Utah (6 – nor about Utah, the third party affect will diminish on election day); North Dakota (3); South Dakota (3); Wyoming (3); West Virginia (5); Kentucky (8); Tennessee (11); Indiana (11); Nebraska (5) ((Total ECVs – 191)

That’s a lot of states for someone who, and I cannot emphasize this enough, knows literally nothing about politics and expresses no interest in learning. It’s a lot of electoral college votes for someone who cannot finish a sentence, other than saying “it’s going to be great, it’s going to be amazing, it’s so great, bigly, bigly, bigly.”

So, in the definite states, Trump leads 191 to 182 in the Electoral College. Let’s move on (I should point out, I have not worked out my prediction to the finish yet so I don’t know who I’m going to end up prognosticating as the winner).

States I’m Pretty Confident of the Outcome, but not 100% Certain

Maine – Split Clinton 3, Trump 1; 

Clinton – New Mexico (5); Colorado (9); Minnesota (10); Wisconsin (11); Michigan (16); Virginia (13)

Trump – Iowa (6); Ohio (18); New Hampshire (4)

Add all of those to where we were before and the race looks like this:

Trump 220 – Clinton 248

With four states to go…Nevada, Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Now obviously, if Nevada and North Carolina went to Clinton and the other two went to Trump, we would end up with a tie in the electoral college. However, I do not think Clinton will win either of those two, and I actually think the only one she might win of the four is Pennsylvania. However, even that is in jeopardy, despite her lead in the polls, since a transit strike in Philadelphia could significantly affect turnout. However, lets say Clinton does win that one and the other three go to Trump – this is how the electoral college votes would stand:

Clinton – 268; Trump 270.

I hope I’m wrong, I genuinely do – perhaps the early voter reports from Nevada suggesting large numbers of Hispanic people are showing up to cast their votes will help Clinton win the Silver State. We shall see. If I am right and Trump does become elected the next President, there will of course be serious consequences, but one thing that must be accepted is that conventional wisdom around elections is no longer valid. In the UK, in 2015, there was supposed to be no clear winner of the general election, yet the Conservatives gained significant ground and now enjoy an outright majority. Plus in June, most people expected “Remain” to win in the Brexit referendum, yet leave triumphed by quite a healthy margin in the end.

The one thing you can do to affect the outcome: if you have a vote, use it.

 

 

 

 

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